Tuesday, August 26, 2008

I thought Obama was supposed to get the bounce.

In the latest Gallup tracking poll McCain has taken a 46 -44 lead over Obama. This poll was taken after the VP annoucment but before the Democratic convention. Although by almost all counts the first day of the DNC was a complete waste of time, with the exception of Ted Kennedy's speech.

What does this mean? It means this election is already in the bag for Republicans. This is shocking even to me. If there was ever a situation where the Democrats should win an election it's this year. All the factors favor them, slow economy, unpopular war, Republican candidate that has trouble with his own base. However the Democrats did what they always do found the most unelectable candidate they could and gave him the nomination. Now it's their party that is divided while the Republican Party is rallying around John McCain. Can you say landslide?

Check out Scott Martin's post over at Patriot Room to see a top ten list on why Obama will lose.
Scott Martin is the author of Conservatism today. http://www.conservatismtoday.com/my_weblog/


  1. How exactly is our party divided? Obama is polling better among women and Hispanics than Kerry did.

    The PUMA organization is funded by Republicans and most of its membership are Republicans. In other words, it's a largely fake movement meant to make it look like there's division in the party when there is not.

    You really think this is "in the bag" for McCain? Your guy is doing better than most would have hoped for, but "in the bag" when the race has been and still is a statistical tie seems like an overreach. But just you keep on overreaching. Maybe some of you guys will stay home on election day, figuring it's "in the bag."

  2. And by almost all accounts the first day was a waste? What are you talking about? I know Carville didn't like it because he wants them to attack McCain. I agree with him that we're need to spend a couple of days hammering at McCain as well, but the first night went off pretty well.

    Michelle Obama's speech went off without a hitch, and hopefully proved to some voters that she's not this militant black anti-American you guys are painting her to be.

    You're watching too much television news and not bothering to read enough online content.

  3. Look here:


    That doesn't exactly say "in the bag" to me.

  4. Sorry, one more point. Here's a direct quote from the Fox News article talking about this:

    "The tie between Obama and McCain may be attributable to base support. The Gallup numbers show McCain receiving about 10 points more support from his Republican base than Obama is from his Democratic base."

    In other words, the reason you don't see as big a bump from this as you normally would is that you still have plenty of Clinton supporters out there. Their first reaction is going to be getting pissed off that Clinton's not the VP. They'll come around.

    I'd say mid-September is the time to start really watching the polls. Give everyone time to absorb the VP picks, the conventions, and the wounded feelings of some Clinton supporters.