Saturday, November 1, 2008

McCain leads Obama 48-47 in Friday polling.

Hat tip Conservatism Today.

From Drudge:

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

This why you never count McCain out. He just has a knack for pulling off amazing comebacks when it looks like he's dead. New Hampshire primaries in 2000 and 2004 are prime examples. He never backs down and he runs as hard has he can toward the finish. If McCain wins this election it will be because of his work-ethic and determination.

I almost forgot quit looking at the polls the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.


  1. I agree. The only poll that matters is on election day. Last year, Zogby broke a lot of Democratic hearts by projecting Kerry to win by three.

    So don't get too caught up in this poll.

  2. Is polling a farce? I can't understand how these wide 10+ point swings could be even close to accurate.

  3. This close to the election, polls are pretty accurate. This particular Zogby poll seems to be an outlier, which is unsurprising given that when you're only talking about changes in one day of polling (remember, the author noted the actual three day rolling average remained "steady"), then you're dealing with a very small sample with a very large margin of error. Which is why it's not a good idea to pluck one day of polling out of a three day sample.

    As of Nov. 1st, Gallup, Rassmussen & the ABC/Washington Post Poll have Obama up by 10, 5, and 9 respectively. And despite McCain's strong showing on Friday, Zogby has this at a five point race as well.

    Overall, the polls are pretty accurate -- usually within 1-3 points of the final margin. My guess would be that there's a 6-7 point gap between Obama and McCain right now.