Sunday, September 7, 2008

McCain up 10% among likely voters in new Gallup poll

This same poll Maybe more importantly McCain has broken through the 50% threshold. This is extremely bad news for the Obama camp. It appears McCain's call to action resonated with undecideds across the county. I also believe returning to his original Maverick self is having an effect on voters. When I hear McCain talking about stomping out corruption and making pork barrel spenders famous. A chant I first heard at the South Carolina Republican Debate comes to mind, "Mac is Back!"

"McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points."

"In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples."

"McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3."

Among the findings:

• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama was up by 7 points in the same poll when it was taken during a two day period
8/30-31. That means this is a seventeen point bounce for McCain from the Convention. I predicted 15 points so It turns out I was off by a little.

1 comment:

  1. Actually you're comparing apples to oranges... or in this case, a likely voter poll to a registered voter poll. Gallup released two poll results for Sept. 8th. One was a joint poll conducted with USA Today of 870 or so likely voters.

    The other was an independent Gallup poll of 2700 or so registered voters. The poll you're talking about is the former, but the "Obama poll" you're comparing it to was in the form of the latter.

    In the RV Gallup poll, John McCain leads by five points 49-44 (I'm not even sure which poll those first numbers you cite came from (50-46), I can't find it at, which pretty well documents every poll released, but it does go hand in hand with my point that McCain is definitely not leading by 10 -- as is demonstrated in a number of polls also released today which show a much, much tighter race).

    So, anyway, ten points is probably a bit optimistic and there is no similar Gallup poll to compare it to taken during the Democratic convention. Don't know why. The only Gallup poll there is to compare it to is the one taken between 8/30 - 9/1, which had Obama up by 8 points (50-42).

    The greater truth to draw from all this is that polls taken so soon after a convention are poor representations of what's really happening. It's in everyone's best interest to revisit the numbers this time next week.